Interesting times!

By Anastasios Retzios

Unfortunately, it appears that the government is about to concede on virtually all the points requested by the troika (or the “institutions” if you like this term).  As I discussed before, it entered into a silly game of “chicken” with the Eurogroup, betting on the support of the IMF.  In the process, it has emptied the state coffers (and those of the municipalities as well).  The IMF got its money but it sided with the “troika”, to the great displeasure of the government.  Did Tsipras and Varoufakis expected, for a single moment, that Langard would side with them?  Yes, they did, amazingly so.  Langard probably hates the very idea of SYRIZA and, again, she probably despises Varoufakis as well.  

Furthermore, the IMF is far more tied to Germany and other EU participants than to Greece.  Why these two made such a stupid bet, it is difficult to fathom.  Now, they are totally “naked”.   It may have dawned on them already that there was never a prospect of an “honorable” compromise.  They were played badly, there were mugged in the alley and they are left begging.

Now, there are just two choices:

(a)   Surrender to the demands of the troika.  Most of the infamous email of the ND officials will now come to pass

(b)   Exit the Eurozone and return to the drachma.

Although I think that, now, the dangers of (b) are far fewer than the dangers of (a), I think that they simply do not have the intestinal fortitude to “just say NO”.  Who knows what would happen when (a) becomes reality.  There would likely be a political storm, SYRIZA would likely fragment and everything would be up in the air.

Interesting times!